Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 14.0 pts to 18.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.8 pts to 27.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.6 pts to 36.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.4 pts to 44.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.1 pts to 53.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.9 pts to 62.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.7 pts to 71.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.4 pts to 79.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.2 pts to 88.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 93.0 pts to 97.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 102 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MI-13 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +47.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026