Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -5.2 pts | 0.4% |
| -0.5 pts | 0.8% |
| 4.2 pts to 9.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.7 pts to 18.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.1 pts to 27.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.6 pts to 37.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.0 pts to 46.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.4 pts to 56.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.9 pts to 65.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.3 pts to 75.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.7 pts to 84.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MI-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 92.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +19.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +42.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026