Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -19.6 pts to -16.4 pts | 1.2% |
| -13.2 pts to -10.0 pts | 3.5% |
| -6.8 pts to -3.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -0.4 pts | 6.1% |
| 2.8 pts to 6.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.1 pts to 12.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.5 pts to 18.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.9 pts to 25.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.3 pts to 31.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.7 pts to 37.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.1 pts to 44.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MI-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 71.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +6.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +12.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026