Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -54.6 pts to -50.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.9 pts to -43.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -39.2 pts to -35.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.6 pts to -27.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -23.9 pts to -20.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -16.2 pts to -12.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.5 pts to -4.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -0.9 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.0 pts to 6.8 pts | 7.9% |
| 10.6 pts to 14.5 pts | 3.5% |
| 18.3 pts to 22.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MI-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +38.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +16.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026