Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 15.6 pts to 19.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.5 pts to 26.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.5 pts to 33.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.4 pts to 39.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.4 pts to 46.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.3 pts to 53.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.3 pts to 60.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.2 pts to 67.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.2 pts to 74.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.1 pts to 81.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MI-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +27.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +50.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026