Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -50.4 pts to -46.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.2 pts to -39.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.0 pts to -32.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -28.8 pts to -25.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.7 pts to -18.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -14.5 pts to -10.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.3 pts to -3.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -0.1 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.5 pts to 7.1 pts | 7.9% |
| 10.7 pts to 14.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 17.9 pts to 21.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MI-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 13.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +33.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +14.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026