Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.4 pts to -47.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.1 pts to -40.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.8 pts to -33.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -29.5 pts to -25.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.2 pts to -18.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -14.9 pts to -11.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.7 pts to -4.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -0.4 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.3 pts to 6.9 pts | 7.9% |
| 10.6 pts to 14.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 17.9 pts to 21.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MI-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 13.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +34.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +14.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026