Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -39.8 pts to -36.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -33.6 pts to -30.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.4 pts to -24.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -21.2 pts to -18.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -15.0 pts to -11.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -8.9 pts to -5.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -2.7 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 0.4 pts to 3.5 pts | 13.7% |
| 6.6 pts to 9.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 12.8 pts to 15.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 19.0 pts to 22.1 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MI-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 21.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +21.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +8.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026