Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 21.8 pts to 25.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.5 pts to 31.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.1 pts to 38.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.8 pts to 45.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.4 pts to 51.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.1 pts to 58.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.7 pts to 65.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.4 pts to 71.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.0 pts to 78.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.7 pts to 85.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 88.3 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MD-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +55.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026