Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 33.4 pts to 36.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.4 pts to 42.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.3 pts to 48.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.3 pts to 54.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.2 pts to 60.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.2 pts to 66.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.1 pts to 72.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.1 pts to 78.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.0 pts to 84.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.0 pts to 89.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MD-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +77.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +63.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026