Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 16.5 pts to 19.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.3 pts to 25.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.1 pts to 31.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.9 pts to 36.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.7 pts to 42.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.5 pts to 48.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.3 pts to 54.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.1 pts to 60.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.9 pts to 65.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.7 pts to 71.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MD-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 92.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +19.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +45.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026