Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.0 pts to -43.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -38.6 pts to -33.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -29.2 pts to -24.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -19.8 pts to -15.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.4 pts to -5.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -1.0 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.7 pts to 8.4 pts | 18.6% |
| 13.1 pts to 17.8 pts | 13.7% |
| 22.5 pts to 27.2 pts | 7.9% |
| 31.9 pts to 36.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 41.3 pts to 46.0 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MD-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 38% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +22.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +1.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026