Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 39.5 pts to 42.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.3 pts to 48.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.1 pts to 54.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.9 pts to 59.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.7 pts to 65.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.5 pts to 71.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.3 pts to 77.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.1 pts to 83.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.9 pts to 88.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.7 pts to 94.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 97.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MA-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +41.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +68.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026