Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 40.1 pts to 43.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.1 pts to 50.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.2 pts to 57.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.2 pts to 64.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.2 pts to 71.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.2 pts to 78.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 82.2 pts to 85.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.2 pts to 92.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 96.3 pts to 99.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 103 pts to 107 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 110 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +75.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026