Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 48.5 pts to 51.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.3 pts to 57.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.2 pts to 63.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.0 pts to 69.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.9 pts to 74.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.8 pts to 80.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.6 pts to 86.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.5 pts to 92.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.3 pts to 98.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 101 pts to 104 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 107 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +77.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026