100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 36.1 pts to 40.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.1 pts to 48.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.1 pts to 56.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.1 pts to 64.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.1 pts to 72.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.2 pts to 80.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.2 pts to 88.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.2 pts to 96.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 100 pts to 104 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 108 pts to 112 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 116 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · MA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +76.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.6 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026