Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -17.0 pts to -12.3 pts | 1.2% |
| -7.5 pts to -2.8 pts | 3.5% |
| 2.0 pts to 6.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.5 pts to 16.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.0 pts to 25.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.5 pts to 35.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.0 pts to 44.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.5 pts to 54.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.0 pts to 63.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.5 pts to 73.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · LA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +30.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026