Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -75.0 pts to -70.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -65.9 pts to -61.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -56.7 pts to -52.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -47.6 pts to -43.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -38.5 pts to -33.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -29.4 pts to -24.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -20.3 pts to -15.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -11.1 pts to -6.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.0 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 2.5 pts to 7.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 11.7 pts to 16.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · LA-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +48.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +29.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026