Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -76.8 pts to -73.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -69.2 pts to -65.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -61.7 pts to -58.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -54.2 pts to -50.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -46.7 pts to -42.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -39.2 pts to -35.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -31.6 pts to -27.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.1 pts to -20.4 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -16.6 pts to -12.8 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -9.1 pts to -5.3 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -1.6 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · LA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +39.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026