Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -66.6 pts to -63.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -60.6 pts to -57.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -54.5 pts to -51.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -48.5 pts to -45.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -42.4 pts to -39.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -36.4 pts to -33.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -30.4 pts to -27.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.3 pts to -21.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -18.3 pts to -15.3 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -12.2 pts to -9.2 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -6.2 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · LA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +51.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +36.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026