Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.4 pts to -46.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.3 pts to -40.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.2 pts to -34.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.1 pts to -28.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.1 pts to -22.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.0 pts to -15.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.9 pts to -9.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.8 pts to -3.7 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -0.7 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 2.3 pts to 5.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 8.4 pts to 11.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · KY-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026