Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -65.2 pts to -62.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -59.2 pts to -56.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -53.2 pts to -50.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -47.1 pts to -44.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -41.1 pts to -38.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -35.1 pts to -32.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -29.1 pts to -26.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -23.0 pts to -20.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.0 pts to -14.0 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -11.0 pts to -8.0 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -5.0 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · KY-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +35.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026