Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -60.5 pts to -57.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -54.8 pts to -52.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -49.2 pts to -46.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -43.5 pts to -40.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -37.9 pts to -35.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -32.3 pts to -29.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -26.6 pts to -23.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -21.0 pts to -18.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -15.4 pts to -12.6 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -9.7 pts to -6.9 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -4.1 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · KY-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +46.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +32.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026