Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -5.8 pts | 0.4% |
| -2.0 pts | 0.8% |
| 1.7 pts to 5.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.2 pts to 13.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.7 pts to 20.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.3 pts to 28.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.8 pts to 35.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.3 pts to 43.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.8 pts to 50.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.3 pts to 58.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.8 pts to 65.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.3 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · KS-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 88.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +11.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +31.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026