Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -41.8 pts to -39.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -36.1 pts to -33.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -30.5 pts to -27.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -24.9 pts to -22.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.3 pts to -16.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.6 pts to -10.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.0 pts to -5.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -2.4 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.4 pts to 3.2 pts | 7.9% |
| 6.0 pts to 8.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 11.7 pts to 14.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · KS-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +19.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026