Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.8 pts to -48.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.0 pts to -43.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.3 pts to -37.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -34.6 pts to -31.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -28.8 pts to -26.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -23.1 pts to -20.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -17.4 pts to -14.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -11.6 pts to -8.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -5.9 pts to -3.0 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -0.1 pts | 1.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.7 pts | 0.8% |
| 5.6 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · KS-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +38.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +23.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026