Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.7 pts to -46.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.0 pts to -41.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.3 pts to -35.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.6 pts to -29.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -26.9 pts to -24.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -21.2 pts to -18.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -15.5 pts to -12.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -9.9 pts to -7.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.2 pts to -1.3 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 1.5 pts to 4.4 pts | 2.2% |
| 7.2 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · IN-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +35.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +21.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026