Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -67.2 pts to -62.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -57.8 pts to -53.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -48.4 pts to -43.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.0 pts to -34.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -29.6 pts to -24.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.2 pts to -15.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -10.8 pts to -6.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.4 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.3 pts to 8.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 12.7 pts to 17.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 22.1 pts to 26.8 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · IL-16 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026