Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -67.6 pts to -62.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -58.2 pts to -53.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -48.8 pts to -44.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.4 pts to -34.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -30.0 pts to -25.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.6 pts to -15.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.2 pts to -6.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.8 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.9 pts to 7.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 12.3 pts to 17.0 pts | 3.5% |
| 21.7 pts to 26.4 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · IL-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026