Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -65.0 pts to -60.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -55.6 pts to -50.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -46.2 pts to -41.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -36.8 pts to -32.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.4 pts to -22.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -18.0 pts to -13.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.6 pts to -3.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 0.8 pts to 5.5 pts | 10.7% |
| 10.2 pts to 14.9 pts | 5.4% |
| 19.6 pts to 24.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 29.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · IL-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +48.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +18.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026