Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 3.7 pts to 6.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.5 pts to 12.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.2 pts to 18.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.0 pts to 23.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.8 pts to 29.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.6 pts to 35.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.4 pts to 41.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.2 pts to 47.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.0 pts to 52.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.8 pts to 58.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 88.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +11.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +32.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026