Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.2 pts to 13.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.6 pts to 21.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.0 pts to 30.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.4 pts to 38.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.8 pts to 47.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.2 pts to 55.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.7 pts to 63.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.1 pts to 72.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.5 pts to 80.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.9 pts to 89.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 93.3 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +36.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +51.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026