Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 3.6 pts to 6.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.8 pts to 12.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.9 pts to 19.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.0 pts to 25.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.2 pts to 31.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.3 pts to 37.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.5 pts to 43.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.6 pts to 49.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.8 pts to 55.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.9 pts to 62.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 90.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +14.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +34.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026