Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 8.8 pts to 13.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.4 pts to 23.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.0 pts to 32.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.5 pts to 42.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.1 pts to 51.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.7 pts to 61.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.3 pts to 71.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.8 pts to 80.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.4 pts to 90.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.0 pts to 99.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 105 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +66.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +56.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026