Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 7.8 pts to 12.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.8 pts to 21.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.8 pts to 30.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.9 pts to 39.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.9 pts to 48.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.9 pts to 57.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.0 pts to 66.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.0 pts to 75.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.0 pts to 84.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.1 pts to 93.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 98.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +42.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +52.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026