Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 21.5 pts to 24.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.5 pts to 30.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.6 pts to 36.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.6 pts to 42.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.6 pts to 48.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.6 pts to 54.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.6 pts to 60.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.7 pts to 66.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.7 pts to 72.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.7 pts to 78.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +34.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +51.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026