Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.2 pts to 13.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.4 pts to 21.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.7 pts to 29.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.9 pts to 38.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.1 pts to 46.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.3 pts to 54.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.5 pts to 62.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.7 pts to 70.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.9 pts to 79.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.1 pts to 87.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.3 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +50.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026