Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 20.4 pts to 23.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.4 pts to 29.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.3 pts to 35.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.3 pts to 41.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.3 pts to 47.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.2 pts to 53.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.2 pts to 59.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.2 pts to 65.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.1 pts to 71.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.1 pts to 77.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IL-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +31.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +50.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026