Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -52.9 pts to -48.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -45.0 pts to -41.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.0 pts to -33.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -29.0 pts to -25.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.1 pts to -17.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.1 pts to -9.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.1 pts to -1.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.8 pts to 6.8 pts | 10.7% |
| 10.8 pts to 14.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 18.7 pts to 22.7 pts | 2.2% |
| 26.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · IA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +34.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026