Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -22.7 pts to -19.9 pts | 1.2% |
| -17.1 pts to -14.3 pts | 3.5% |
| -11.5 pts to -8.7 pts | 7.9% |
| -5.8 pts to -3.0 pts | 13.7% |
| -0.2 pts | 8.9% |
| 2.6 pts to 5.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.2 pts to 11.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.8 pts to 16.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.4 pts to 22.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.0 pts to 27.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.6 pts to 33.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IA-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 64.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +3.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +5.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026