64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -33.7 pts to -29.8 pts | 1.2% |
| -26.0 pts to -22.1 pts | 3.5% |
| -18.2 pts to -14.3 pts | 7.9% |
| -10.4 pts to -6.5 pts | 13.7% |
| -2.6 pts | 8.9% |
| 1.2 pts to 5.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.0 pts to 12.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.8 pts to 20.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.5 pts to 28.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.3 pts to 36.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.1 pts to 44.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · IA-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 58.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +5.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.9 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026