Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -32.0 pts to -28.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -25.8 pts to -22.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -19.6 pts to -16.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -13.4 pts to -10.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -7.2 pts to -4.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -1.0 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 5.2 pts | 18.6% |
| 8.3 pts to 11.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 14.5 pts to 17.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 20.7 pts to 23.8 pts | 3.5% |
| 26.9 pts to 30.0 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · IA-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 40.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +15.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +1.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026