Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 25.5 pts to 28.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.3 pts to 34.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.1 pts to 40.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.0 pts to 45.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.8 pts to 51.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.6 pts to 57.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.4 pts to 63.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.2 pts to 69.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.0 pts to 74.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.8 pts to 80.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.6 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · HI-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +43.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +54.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026