Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.2 pts to -50.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.1 pts to -41.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.9 pts to -32.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.7 pts to -23.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -18.5 pts to -13.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -9.3 pts to -4.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -0.2 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 4.4 pts to 9.0 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.6 pts to 18.2 pts | 7.9% |
| 22.8 pts to 27.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 31.9 pts to 36.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · GA-14 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 23.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +28.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +9.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026