Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 8.1 pts to 12.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.6 pts to 22.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.1 pts to 31.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.6 pts to 41.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.1 pts to 50.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.6 pts to 60.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.1 pts to 69.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.6 pts to 79.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.1 pts to 88.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 93.6 pts to 98.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 103 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · GA-13 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +43.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +55.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026