Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -39.7 pts to -36.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -33.9 pts to -31.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -28.2 pts to -25.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -22.4 pts to -19.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -16.7 pts to -13.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -10.9 pts to -8.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.1 pts to -2.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 0.6 pts to 3.5 pts | 10.7% |
| 6.4 pts to 9.3 pts | 5.4% |
| 12.1 pts to 15.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 17.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · GA-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 18.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +10.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026