Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -59.0 pts to -54.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.4 pts to -44.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -39.8 pts to -35.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.2 pts to -25.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.7 pts to -15.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -11.1 pts to -6.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -1.5 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 3.3 pts to 8.1 pts | 13.7% |
| 12.8 pts to 17.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 22.4 pts to 27.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 32.0 pts to 36.8 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · GA-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 20.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +34.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +11.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026