Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.0 pts to -46.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.4 pts to -38.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.8 pts to -29.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -25.2 pts to -20.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -16.6 pts to -12.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -8.0 pts to -3.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 0.6 pts to 4.9 pts | 16.5% |
| 9.2 pts to 13.5 pts | 10.7% |
| 17.8 pts to 22.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 26.4 pts to 30.7 pts | 2.2% |
| 35.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · GA-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 25.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +8.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026