Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.7 pts to -48.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -45.3 pts to -42.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.9 pts to -35.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.5 pts to -29.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -22.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.7 pts to -16.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.3 pts to -10.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.9 pts to -3.7 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -0.5 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 2.7 pts to 5.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 9.1 pts to 12.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · GA-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +38.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026