Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -43.8 pts to -40.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -37.7 pts to -34.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.7 pts to -28.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -25.6 pts to -22.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.5 pts to -16.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.5 pts to -10.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.4 pts to -4.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.4 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.7 pts to 4.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 7.7 pts to 10.8 pts | 3.5% |
| 13.8 pts to 16.8 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · GA-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 13.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +29.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026