Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 6.2 pts to 11.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.7 pts to 20.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.2 pts to 30.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.7 pts to 39.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.2 pts to 49.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.7 pts to 58.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.2 pts to 68.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.8 pts to 77.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 82.3 pts to 87.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.8 pts to 96.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 101 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · GA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +49.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +53.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026